KV Kortrijk vs KV Mechelen

Friday, 23 October 2026 at 18:45

Win probability

25%

KV Kortrijk wins

24%

Draw

51%

KV Mechelen wins

xG Home

1.16

KV Kortrijk

Blowout %

32%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.75

KV Mechelen

Analysis

Our model puts a KV Mechelen win at 51% in this Belgian Pro League fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.16 to 1.75.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47% of the time — 596 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 2.5 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Published 16 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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