Ipswich Town vs Nottingham Forest
Our model puts a Nottingham Forest win at 39.5% in this Premier League fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.24 to 1.36.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.8% of the time — 717 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 1.8 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
The ratings gap
Nottingham Forest carry a rating of 1736 against 1636 for Ipswich Town, a gap of 100 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Nottingham Forest's attack should find room against Ipswich Town's defence, by 115 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
How often they shoot
Nottingham Forest take 14.8 shots a match against an average of 11.9. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.