Granada vs Real Valladolid

Friday, 23 October 2026 at 18:30

Win probability

48%

Granada wins

25%

Draw

27%

Real Valladolid wins

xG Home

1.58

Granada

Blowout %

40%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.11

Real Valladolid

Analysis

Our model puts a Granada win at 47.9% in this Segunda Division fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.58 to 1.11.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,836 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47.7% of the time — 564 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 1.8 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Published 16 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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