Cruzeiro vs Remo

Friday, 23 October 2026 at 23:00

Win probability

41%

Cruzeiro wins

27%

Draw

33%

Remo wins

xG Home

1.36

Cruzeiro

Blowout %

45%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.19

Remo

Analysis

Our model puts a Cruzeiro win at 40.6% in this Brasileirao fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.36 to 1.19.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.8% of the time — 717 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 1.8 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Published 16 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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