Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor
Our model puts an Alanyaspor win at 63.5% in this Süper Lig fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 1.84 to 0.73.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 50.7% of the time — 355 fixtures in that band. That is 8.8 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
The ratings gap
Alanyaspor carry a rating of 1523 against 1426 for Kocaelispor, a gap of 98 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Alanyaspor's attack should find room against Kocaelispor's defence, by 119 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Kocaelispor are off their season peak
Kocaelispor peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1426 today, 74 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
How often they shoot
Kocaelispor manage 9.4 shots a match, against an average of 11.9. A side that shoots this rarely has to take what it gets, which makes its scoring lumpier than its quality.
Early or late
41.2% of Alanyaspor's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 17 goals. A side that does its scoring early has more to protect than most, and a lead at the break is likelier to be the story of the match than the first act of it.
Behind the defence
76.7% of the shots on target Kocaelispor face do not end up in the net, against 67.3% for the sides we measure. That is a keeper and a defence having a good run of it — and a figure that tends to drift back toward the middle, which is worth remembering before reading too much into it.