Union St.-Gilloise vs Hapoel Be'er
Our model puts an Union St.-Gilloise win at 55.1% in this UEFA Europa League fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.86 to 1.08.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 50.7% of the time — 355 fixtures in that band. That is 8.8 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
The ratings gap
Union St.-Gilloise carry a rating of 1626 against 1496 for Hapoel Be'er, a gap of 130 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Hapoel Be'er's attack will struggle to break down Union St.-Gilloise's defence, by 99 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Union St.-Gilloise are hard to beat
Union St.-Gilloise have gone 12 matches without losing, though without stringing wins together. That pattern tends to push draw probability up more than it pushes a win probability.