TSG Hoffenheim vs Lyon
Our model puts a Lyon win at 55.4% in this UEFA Europa League fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 0.91 to 1.69.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 50.7% of the time — 355 fixtures in that band. That is 8.8 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
The ratings gap
Lyon carry a rating of 1782 against 1644 for TSG Hoffenheim, a gap of 138 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Lyon's attack should find room against TSG Hoffenheim's defence, by 221 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
TSG Hoffenheim are off their season peak
TSG Hoffenheim peaked at 1720 this season and sit at 1644 today, 77 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
How often they shoot
TSG Hoffenheim take 16.8 shots a match against an average of 11.9. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.
Early or late
72.7% of Lyon's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 11 goals. A side that scores this late is usually one that grows into matches or finishes them stronger than it starts — and one whose half-time score says less than usual about the result.
Behind the defence
58.2% of the shots on target TSG Hoffenheim face do not end up in the net, against 67.3% for the sides we measure. That is low enough to matter, and it is the kind of number that flatters or punishes a side's record without saying much about how it plays.