SK Sturm Graz vs Marseille
Our model puts a Marseille win at 61.6% in this UEFA Europa League fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 0.92 to 1.98.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 50.7% of the time — 355 fixtures in that band. That is 8.8 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
The ratings gap
Marseille carry a rating of 1667 against 1498 for SK Sturm Graz, a gap of 169 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Marseille's attack should find room against SK Sturm Graz's defence, by 115 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Marseille are off their season peak
Marseille peaked at 1758 this season and sit at 1667 today, 90 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
Early or late
81.2% of Marseille's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 16 goals. A side that scores this late is usually one that grows into matches or finishes them stronger than it starts — and one whose half-time score says less than usual about the result.