Red Star Belgrade vs F.C. København
Our model puts a Red Star Belgrade win at 67.1% in this UEFA Conference League fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 2.24 to 0.89.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 65% and 75% came in 69.9% of the time — 183 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 69.4%, so the two are within 0.5 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Red Star Belgrade's attack should find room against F.C. København's defence, by 143 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.