Puebla vs Monterrey

Thursday, 22 October 2026 at 01:00

Win probability

37%

Puebla wins

26%

Draw

37%

Monterrey wins

xG Home

1.39

Puebla

Blowout %

32%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.38

Monterrey

Analysis

Our model puts a Puebla win at 37.4% in this Liga MX fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.39 to 1.38.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.8% of the time — 717 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 1.8 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1488 against 1510, a gap of 22 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Published 16 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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