Palmeiras vs Fluminense
Our model puts a Palmeiras win at 55.4% in this Copa Libertadores fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.73 to 0.95.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 50.7% of the time — 355 fixtures in that band. That is 8.8 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
Palmeiras are on a run
Palmeiras arrive on 3 straight wins, part of 4 matches unbeaten. Form of that length moves our rating on its own, so it is already reflected in the numbers above rather than being an argument on top of them.