Pachuca vs Cruz Azul

Thursday, 22 October 2026 at 03:00

Win probability

45%

Pachuca wins

25%

Draw

30%

Cruz Azul wins

xG Home

1.57

Pachuca

Blowout %

37%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.25

Cruz Azul

Analysis

Our model puts a Pachuca win at 44.6% in this Liga MX fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.57 to 1.25.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.8% of the time — 717 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 1.8 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1497 against 1522, a gap of 25 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Published 16 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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