Omonia Nicosia vs Benfica
Our model puts a Benfica win at 71.2% in this UEFA Europa League fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 0.74 to 2.27.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 65% and 75% came in 69.9% of the time — 183 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 69.4%, so the two are within 0.5 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
The ratings gap
Benfica carry a rating of 1811 against 1529 for Omonia Nicosia, a gap of 282 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Benfica's attack should find room against Omonia Nicosia's defence, by 208 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
How often they shoot
Benfica take 19.5 shots a match against an average of 11.9. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.