Olympiacos vs Sparta Prague
Our model puts an Olympiacos win at 62.9% in this UEFA Europa League fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 1.9 to 0.8.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 50.7% of the time — 355 fixtures in that band. That is 8.8 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
The ratings gap
Olympiacos carry a rating of 1736 against 1630 for Sparta Prague, a gap of 107 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Olympiacos are on a run
Olympiacos arrive on 4 straight wins, part of 4 matches unbeaten. Form of that length moves our rating on its own, so it is already reflected in the numbers above rather than being an argument on top of them.