OFI Crete vs Bayer Leverkusen
Our model puts a Bayer Leverkusen win at 68.1% in this UEFA Europa League fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 0.73 to 2.08.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 65% and 75% came in 69.9% of the time — 183 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 69.4%, so the two are within 0.5 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
The ratings gap
Bayer Leverkusen carry a rating of 1838 against 1516 for OFI Crete, a gap of 322 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Bayer Leverkusen's attack should find room against OFI Crete's defence, by 295 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Bayer Leverkusen are on a run
Bayer Leverkusen arrive on 4 straight wins, part of 6 matches unbeaten. Form of that length moves our rating on its own, so it is already reflected in the numbers above rather than being an argument on top of them.
Finding the target
OFI Crete struggles to hit the target: 24.6% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 34.1%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
How often they shoot
Bayer Leverkusen take 20.3 shots a match against an average of 11.9. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.
Early or late
25% of OFI Crete's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 12 goals. A side that does its scoring early has more to protect than most, and a lead at the break is likelier to be the story of the match than the first act of it.