Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad
Our model puts a Real Sociedad win at 71.9% in this UEFA Europa League fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 0.83 to 2.45.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 65% and 75% came in 69.9% of the time — 183 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 69.4%, so the two are within 0.5 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
The ratings gap
Real Sociedad carry a rating of 1683 against 1492 for Lillestrom, a gap of 192 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Real Sociedad's attack should find room against Lillestrom's defence, by 178 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
A disciplinary record worth knowing
Real Sociedad collect 3.2 cards a match, on 13.2 fouls a match, against an average of 2.2. Cards are the one thing here that can change a match rather than describe it: a sending-off rewrites every number on this page.