Lech Poznan vs Sunderland
Our model puts a Sunderland win at 43.3% in this UEFA Europa League fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.22 to 1.49.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.8% of the time — 717 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 1.8 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Behind the defence
51.1% of the shots on target Sunderland face do not end up in the net, against 67.3% for the sides we measure. That is low enough to matter, and it is the kind of number that flatters or punishes a side's record without saying much about how it plays.