Kauno Zalgiris vs SK Brann

Thursday, 22 October 2026 at 16:45

Win probability

32%

Kauno Zalgiris wins

23%

Draw

45%

SK Brann wins

xG Home

1.46

Kauno Zalgiris

Blowout %

44%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.79

SK Brann

Analysis

Our model puts a SK Brann win at 45.2% in this UEFA Conference League fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.46 to 1.79.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,836 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47.7% of the time — 564 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 1.8 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1487 against 1504, a gap of 17 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Published 16 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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