Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Anderlecht

Thursday, 22 October 2026 at 19:00

Win probability

25%

Jagiellonia Bialystok wins

23%

Draw

52%

Anderlecht wins

xG Home

1.19

Jagiellonia Bialystok

Blowout %

29%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.82

Anderlecht

Analysis

Our model puts an Anderlecht win at 51.5% in this UEFA Europa League fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.19 to 1.82.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47% of the time — 596 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 2.5 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Published 16 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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