FC Nordsjælland vs CSKA Sofia

Thursday, 22 October 2026 at 16:45

Win probability

29%

FC Nordsjælland wins

24%

Draw

48%

CSKA Sofia wins

xG Home

1.31

FC Nordsjælland

Blowout %

39%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.76

CSKA Sofia

Analysis

Our model puts a CSKA Sofia win at 47.6% in this UEFA Conference League fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.31 to 1.76.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47% of the time — 596 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 2.5 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1504 against 1497, a gap of 7 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Published 16 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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