FC Midtjylland vs Sint-Truidense
Our model puts a FC Midtjylland win at 63.1% in this UEFA Conference League fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 2.27 to 1.08.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 50.7% of the time — 355 fixtures in that band. That is 8.8 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, FC Midtjylland's attack should find room against Sint-Truidense's defence, by 92 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.