Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Nijmegen
Our model puts a Dinamo Zagreb win at 61.2% in this UEFA Europa League fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 1.83 to 0.81.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 50.7% of the time — 355 fixtures in that band. That is 8.8 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
The ratings gap
Dinamo Zagreb carry a rating of 1641 against 1551 for NEC Nijmegen, a gap of 90 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Dinamo Zagreb's attack should find room against NEC Nijmegen's defence, by 122 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.