Celtic vs Celta Vigo
Our model puts a Celtic win at 52.2% in this UEFA Europa League fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.63 to 0.99.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47% of the time — 596 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 2.5 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Celtic's attack should find room against Celta Vigo's defence, by 121 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Celta Vigo are off their season peak
Celta Vigo peaked at 1720 this season and sit at 1666 today, 54 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
Finding the target
Celtic hits the target more often than almost anyone: 39.8% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 34.1%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
How often they shoot
Celtic take 17.2 shots a match against an average of 11.9. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.
Behind the defence
78% of the shots on target Celta Vigo face do not end up in the net, against 67.3% for the sides we measure. That is a keeper and a defence having a good run of it — and a figure that tends to drift back toward the middle, which is worth remembering before reading too much into it.