Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar
Our model puts an AZ Alkmaar win at 68.9% in this UEFA Europa League fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 0.9 to 2.36.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 65% and 75% came in 69.9% of the time — 183 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 69.4%, so the two are within 0.5 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
The ratings gap
AZ Alkmaar carry a rating of 1646 against 1472 for Ararat-Armenia, a gap of 174 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, AZ Alkmaar's attack should find room against Ararat-Armenia's defence, by 182 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Finding the target
AZ Alkmaar hits the target more often than almost anyone: 40.1% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 34.1%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
How often they shoot
AZ Alkmaar take 18.1 shots a match against an average of 11.9. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.
Behind the defence
75% of the shots on target AZ Alkmaar face do not end up in the net, against 67.3% for the sides we measure. That is a keeper and a defence having a good run of it — and a figure that tends to drift back toward the middle, which is worth remembering before reading too much into it.