Guadalajara vs Necaxa
Our model puts a Guadalajara win at 76.5% in this Liga MX fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 2.87 to 0.88.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 75% and 85% came in 81.4% of the time — 70 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 79.3%, so the two are within 2.2 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1493 against 1475, a gap of 18 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.