FC Juárez vs Atlante

Wednesday, 21 October 2026 at 01:00

Win probability

38%

FC Juárez wins

25%

Draw

37%

Atlante wins

xG Home

1.42

FC Juárez

Blowout %

36%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.41

Atlante

Analysis

Our model puts a FC Juárez win at 37.6% in this Liga MX fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.42 to 1.41.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.8% of the time — 717 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 1.8 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Published 16 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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