Bayern Munich vs Arsenal
Our model puts a Bayern Munich win at 45.8% in this UEFA Champions League fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.58 to 1.21.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47% of the time — 596 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 2.5 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 2012 against 2018, a gap of 6 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Arsenal's attack should find room against Bayern Munich's defence, by 144 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Bayern Munich are hard to beat
Bayern Munich have gone 12 matches without losing, though without stringing wins together. That pattern tends to push draw probability up more than it pushes a win probability.
Bayern Munich are off their season peak
Bayern Munich peaked at 2069 this season and sit at 2012 today, 57 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
Finding the target
Bayern Munich hits the target more often than almost anyone: 39.2% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 34.1%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
How often they shoot
Bayern Munich take 21.2 shots a match against an average of 11.9. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.
Early or late
38.9% of Arsenal's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 18 goals. A side that does its scoring early has more to protect than most, and a lead at the break is likelier to be the story of the match than the first act of it.
Behind the defence
75% of the shots on target Bayern Munich face do not end up in the net, against 67.3% for the sides we measure. That is a keeper and a defence having a good run of it — and a figure that tends to drift back toward the middle, which is worth remembering before reading too much into it.