York City vs Accrington Stanley

Tuesday, 20 October 2026 at 18:45

Win probability

45%

York City wins

25%

Draw

30%

Accrington Stanley wins

xG Home

1.59

York City

Blowout %

36%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.25

Accrington Stanley

Analysis

Our model puts a York City win at 45.2% in this League Two fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.59 to 1.25.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47% of the time — 596 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 2.5 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Accrington Stanley are off their season peak

Accrington Stanley peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1444 today, 56 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.

Published 16 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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