Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Portsmouth
Our model puts a Wolverhampton Wanderers win at 60.9% in this Championship fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 1.79 to 0.79.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 50.7% of the time — 355 fixtures in that band. That is 8.8 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
The ratings gap
Wolverhampton Wanderers carry a rating of 1624 against 1507 for Portsmouth, a gap of 118 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Wolverhampton Wanderers's attack should find room against Portsmouth's defence, by 122 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Finding the target
Wolverhampton Wanderers struggles to hit the target: 27.8% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 34.1%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
Early or late
70.6% of Portsmouth's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 17 goals. A side that scores this late is usually one that grows into matches or finishes them stronger than it starts — and one whose half-time score says less than usual about the result.