Walsall vs Oldham Athletic
Our model puts a Walsall win at 54.5% in this League Two fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.69 to 0.95.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47% of the time — 596 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 2.5 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1464 against 1470, a gap of 6 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.
Walsall are hard to beat
Walsall have gone 12 matches without losing, though without stringing wins together. That pattern tends to push draw probability up more than it pushes a win probability.