Stevenage vs Plymouth Argyle
Our model puts a Stevenage win at 41.5% in this League One fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.34 to 1.13.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.8% of the time — 717 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 1.8 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Early or late
40% of Stevenage's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 15 goals. A side that does its scoring early has more to protect than most, and a lead at the break is likelier to be the story of the match than the first act of it.