Sabah FK vs Borussia Dortmund
Our model puts a Borussia Dortmund win at 76.6% in this UEFA Champions League fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 0.69 to 2.55.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 75% and 85% came in 81.4% of the time — 70 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 79.3%, so the two are within 2.2 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
The ratings gap
Borussia Dortmund carry a rating of 1823 against 1519 for Sabah FK, a gap of 305 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Borussia Dortmund's attack should find room against Sabah FK's defence, by 268 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.