Rochdale vs Grimsby Town
Our model puts a Grimsby Town win at 37.1% in this League Two fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.26 to 1.28.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.8% of the time — 717 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 1.8 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
The ratings gap
Grimsby Town carry a rating of 1507 against 1363 for Rochdale, a gap of 144 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Grimsby Town's attack should find room against Rochdale's defence, by 147 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Rochdale are off their season peak
Rochdale peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1363 today, 137 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
How often they shoot
Rochdale manage 8.8 shots a match, against an average of 11.9. A side that shoots this rarely has to take what it gets, which makes its scoring lumpier than its quality.