Oxford United vs Wigan Athletic
Our model puts an Oxford United win at 56.8% in this League One fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.76 to 0.92.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 50.7% of the time — 355 fixtures in that band. That is 8.8 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1492 against 1481, a gap of 11 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.
Wigan Athletic are off their season peak
Wigan Athletic peaked at 1528 this season and sit at 1481 today, 48 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.