Notts County vs Sheffield Wednesday
Our model puts a Notts County win at 55.7% in this League One fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.65 to 0.86.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 50.7% of the time — 355 fixtures in that band. That is 8.8 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
Sheffield Wednesday are hard to beat
Sheffield Wednesday have gone 6 matches without losing, though without stringing wins together. That pattern tends to push draw probability up more than it pushes a win probability.
Sheffield Wednesday are off their season peak
Sheffield Wednesday peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1437 today, 63 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
Behind the defence
58.3% of the shots on target Notts County face do not end up in the net, against 67.3% for the sides we measure. That is low enough to matter, and it is the kind of number that flatters or punishes a side's record without saying much about how it plays.