Gillingham vs Port Vale
Our model puts a Gillingham win at 40.3% in this League Two fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.29 to 1.12.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.8% of the time — 717 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 1.8 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Gillingham are off their season peak
Gillingham peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1408 today, 92 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
Early or late
83.3% of Gillingham's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 12 goals. A side that scores this late is usually one that grows into matches or finishes them stronger than it starts — and one whose half-time score says less than usual about the result.