Fenerbahce vs Slavia Prague
Our model puts a Fenerbahce win at 80.6% in this UEFA Champions League fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 2.84 to 0.67.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 75% and 85% came in 81.4% of the time — 70 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 79.3%, so the two are within 2.2 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Fenerbahce at 1.67, which implies about 59.9%. Our model has it at 80.6% — 20.7 points higher. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
The ratings gap
Fenerbahce carry a rating of 1712 against 1574 for Slavia Prague, a gap of 138 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Fenerbahce's attack should find room against Slavia Prague's defence, by 155 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Finding the target
Fenerbahce hits the target more often than almost anyone: 40.3% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 34.1%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
How often they shoot
Fenerbahce take 18.4 shots a match against an average of 11.9. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.
A disciplinary record worth knowing
Fenerbahce collect 3.2 cards a match, on 12 fouls a match, against an average of 2.2. Cards are the one thing here that can change a match rather than describe it: a sending-off rewrites every number on this page.
A high-scoring home side
One model here does nothing but estimate how likely the home side is to score four goals or more, and on this fixture it reads 73.6%. Across our settled fixtures that happens about 8% of the time, so this is well above ordinary. It says nothing about who wins — a side can score four and still be caught — but a match where one team is expected to run up a total is one where the scoreline is much harder to call than the result.