Crawley Town vs Shrewsbury Town
Our model puts a Crawley Town win at 41.4% in this League Two fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.36 to 1.15.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.8% of the time — 717 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 1.8 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Crawley Town are off their season peak
Crawley Town peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1370 today, 130 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
Early or late
84.6% of Crawley Town's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 13 goals. A side that scores this late is usually one that grows into matches or finishes them stronger than it starts — and one whose half-time score says less than usual about the result.
Behind the defence
78.3% of the shots on target Crawley Town face do not end up in the net, against 67.3% for the sides we measure. That is a keeper and a defence having a good run of it — and a figure that tends to drift back toward the middle, which is worth remembering before reading too much into it.