Cheltenham Town vs Fleetwood Town
Our model puts a Cheltenham Town win at 46.5% in this League Two fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.48 to 1.07.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47% of the time — 596 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 2.5 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1456 against 1443, a gap of 13 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.
Fleetwood Town are off their season peak
Fleetwood Town peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1443 today, 57 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.