Burton Albion vs Bradford City

Tuesday, 20 October 2026 at 18:45

Win probability

38%

Burton Albion wins

27%

Draw

34%

Bradford City wins

xG Home

1.27

Burton Albion

Blowout %

29%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.18

Bradford City

Analysis

Our model puts a Burton Albion win at 38.3% in this League One fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.27 to 1.18.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.8% of the time — 717 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 1.8 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Bradford City are hard to beat

Bradford City have gone 7 matches without losing, though without stringing wins together. That pattern tends to push draw probability up more than it pushes a win probability.

Published 16 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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