Bristol Rovers vs Salford City

Tuesday, 20 October 2026 at 18:45

Win probability

38%

Bristol Rovers wins

27%

Draw

36%

Salford City wins

xG Home

1.29

Bristol Rovers

Blowout %

33%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.24

Salford City

Analysis

Our model puts a Bristol Rovers win at 37.6% in this League Two fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.29 to 1.24.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.8% of the time — 717 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 1.8 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Salford City are on a run

Salford City arrive on 4 straight wins, part of 7 matches unbeaten. Form of that length moves our rating on its own, so it is already reflected in the numbers above rather than being an argument on top of them.

Published 16 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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