AFC Wimbledon vs Mansfield Town
Our model puts an AFC Wimbledon win at 38.8% in this League One fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.3 to 1.2.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.8% of the time — 717 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 1.8 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Mansfield Town are hard to beat
Mansfield Town have gone 6 matches without losing, though without stringing wins together. That pattern tends to push draw probability up more than it pushes a win probability.
AFC Wimbledon are off their season peak
AFC Wimbledon peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1432 today, 68 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.