San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC

Sunday, 18 October 2026 at 02:30

Win probability

29%

San Jose Earthquakes wins

23%

Draw

48%

Nashville SC wins

xG Home

1.34

San Jose Earthquakes

Blowout %

30%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.80

Nashville SC

Analysis

Our model puts a Nashville SC win at 47.9% in this MLS fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.34 to 1.8.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47% of the time — 596 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 2.5 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

San Jose Earthquakes are hard to beat

San Jose Earthquakes have gone 8 matches without losing, though without stringing wins together. That pattern tends to push draw probability up more than it pushes a win probability.

Market odds

3.50

San Jose Earthquakes

3.75

Draw

1.91

Nashville SC

Published 16 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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