Sampdoria vs Arezzo
Our model puts a Sampdoria win at 41.7% in this Serie B fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.43 to 1.23.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.8% of the time — 717 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 1.8 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Sampdoria at 1.8, which implies about 55.6%. Our model has it at 41.7% — 13.9 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
Sampdoria are off their season peak
Sampdoria peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1436 today, 64 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
Early or late
87.5% of Sampdoria's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 8 goals. A side that scores this late is usually one that grows into matches or finishes them stronger than it starts — and one whose half-time score says less than usual about the result.
Behind the defence
56.8% of the shots on target Sampdoria face do not end up in the net, against 67.3% for the sides we measure. That is low enough to matter, and it is the kind of number that flatters or punishes a side's record without saying much about how it plays.