Real Valladolid vs Eldense
Our model puts a Real Valladolid win at 50.1% in this Segunda Division fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.58 to 1.02.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,836 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47.7% of the time — 564 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 1.8 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1472 against 1470, a gap of 2 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.
Early or late
81.2% of Eldense's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 16 goals. A side that scores this late is usually one that grows into matches or finishes them stronger than it starts — and one whose half-time score says less than usual about the result.