Real Madrid vs Sevilla
Our model puts a Real Madrid win at 78.6% in this La Liga fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 2.72 to 0.7.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 75% and 85% came in 81.4% of the time — 70 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 79.3%, so the two are within 2.2 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
The ratings gap
Real Madrid carry a rating of 1949 against 1664 for Sevilla, a gap of 285 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Real Madrid's attack should find room against Sevilla's defence, by 313 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
How often they shoot
Real Madrid take 16.2 shots a match against an average of 11.9. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.
A disciplinary record worth knowing
Sevilla collect 3.6 cards a match, on 15.2 fouls a match, against an average of 2.2. Cards are the one thing here that can change a match rather than describe it: a sending-off rewrites every number on this page.
Early or late
72.2% of Sevilla's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 18 goals. A side that scores this late is usually one that grows into matches or finishes them stronger than it starts — and one whose half-time score says less than usual about the result.
Behind the defence
76.5% of the shots on target Real Madrid face do not end up in the net, against 67.3% for the sides we measure. That is a keeper and a defence having a good run of it — and a figure that tends to drift back toward the middle, which is worth remembering before reading too much into it.
A high-scoring home side
One model here does nothing but estimate how likely the home side is to score four goals or more, and on this fixture it reads 83.5%. Across our settled fixtures that happens about 8% of the time, so this is well above ordinary. It says nothing about who wins — a side can score four and still be caught — but a match where one team is expected to run up a total is one where the scoreline is much harder to call than the result.