PEC Zwolle vs Go Ahead Eagles
Our model puts a Go Ahead Eagles win at 42.3% in this Eredivisie fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.34 to 1.56.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.8% of the time — 717 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 1.8 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Go Ahead Eagles at 1.95, which implies about 51.3%. Our model has it at 42.3% — 9 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Go Ahead Eagles's attack should find room against PEC Zwolle's defence, by 129 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Finding the target
Go Ahead Eagles hits the target more often than almost anyone: 40.4% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 34.1%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
How often they shoot
Go Ahead Eagles take 14.8 shots a match against an average of 11.9. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.