Osasuna vs Racing Santander
Our model puts an Osasuna win at 59.9% in this La Liga fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 2.04 to 1.03.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 50.7% of the time — 355 fixtures in that band. That is 8.8 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Osasuna at 2.0, which implies about 50%. Our model has it at 59.9% — 9.9 points higher. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Osasuna's attack should find room against Racing Santander's defence, by 197 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Behind the defence
53.6% of the shots on target Osasuna face do not end up in the net, against 67.3% for the sides we measure. That is low enough to matter, and it is the kind of number that flatters or punishes a side's record without saying much about how it plays.