Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal
Our model puts an Arsenal win at 63.7% in this Premier League fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 0.82 to 1.96.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 50.7% of the time — 355 fixtures in that band. That is 8.8 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
The ratings gap
Arsenal carry a rating of 2018 against 1736 for Nottingham Forest, a gap of 282 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Nottingham Forest's attack will struggle to break down Arsenal's defence, by 198 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
How often they shoot
Nottingham Forest take 14.8 shots a match against an average of 11.9. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.
Early or late
38.9% of Arsenal's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 18 goals. A side that does its scoring early has more to protect than most, and a lead at the break is likelier to be the story of the match than the first act of it.