Leeds United vs Manchester United
Our model puts a Leeds United win at 43.2% in this Premier League fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.46 to 1.19.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.8% of the time — 717 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 1.8 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1761 against 1784, a gap of 23 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.
How often they shoot
Manchester United take 15.6 shots a match against an average of 11.9. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.